The U.S. Department of Labor put out the September jobs report at last. It came almost seven weeks late. The government shutdown caused the holdup. The numbers might feel old now. Still, they give a good look at how things stood back then. You can spot patterns in hiring. Bosses seem wary. The bigger economy looks shaky as fall kicks in. But with other reports stuck in limbo, it’s hard to say what’s next for jobs. No one knows the whole story yet. It’s like trying to read a book with half the pages missing.
A Sluggish Summer: The State of Job Growth in 2025
The September numbers cap off a slow summer for new jobs. Employers added under 30,000 spots each month on average from June to August. That’s a big drop from earlier in the year. Back in spring, gains hit around 100,000 or more. Now folks wonder if the job scene can hold up. Growth stayed low. But here’s a bright spot: not many people lost work. Firings stayed tame. That kept things from getting worse fast.
Many companies just sat tight. They didn’t add staff. They didn’t cut much either. Call it a “hold steady” mode. No big shifts in headcount. But lately, that pattern’s cracking. Signs point to more cuts ahead. Businesses brace for rough times. Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller chatted with company heads. He heard the same worry. The job market feels close to a standstill. “Conversations suggest we’re nearing a stall,” he said in a recent speech.
Take healthcare, for one. It added jobs steady through summer. About 40,000 in August alone. That’s from hospital shifts and clinic work. But retail? Flat. Just 5,000 new spots. Factories lost 2,000. Temp agencies shed 10,000. Those dips show bosses hold back on spending. ADP, a payroll firm, reported private jobs dropped 32,000 in September. Their data uses real checks. Not surveys. It matches the slowdown vibe.
Summer heat didn’t help job hunts. Fairs in places like Sacramento drew crowds. But offers? Scarce. One fair saw 500 seekers for 50 openings. That’s tough math. And revisions hit hard too. Early 2025 numbers got cut by 911,000 total. That’s the biggest drop since 2002. Each month lost about 76,000 from first counts. Makes you question how solid those early cheers were.
Rising Layoffs: What Companies Are Saying About the Future
Big names started trimming crews. That spells change in the air. Amazon said on October 28 it’d cut 14,000 corporate roles. That’s to slim down ops and chase tech shifts like AI. Verizon jumped in next. They’re axing 15,000 jobs. Biggest slash ever for them. Hits 15% of staff. Plus, 200 stores go franchise. Workers there shift off payroll.
These moves show nerves. Companies eye costs sharp. They prep for dips in sales. Verizon’s new boss, Dan Schulman, wants “cost transformation.” That’s code for leaner teams. Amazon’s Beth Galetti called it making the place nimbler. But for workers? It’s pink slips. UPS cut 12,000 too. Mostly package handlers. Tied to slower shipping post-holidays.
Talk from execs paints a picture. “We’re rightsizing for demand,” one Verizon note said. Rightsizing means fewer folks. AI plays in. Tools handle routine tasks. Like chat support or data entry. IBM plans thousands out in Q4. To push AI consulting. Meta trimmed its AI unit. Even winners cut.
This shift matters. Earlier, bosses hesitated on big changes. Now? They’re trimming. It’s an early bell. Job strain could grow. Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracks cuts. October hit 150,000. Highest in 20 years. November might top it. With shutdown fallout.
One story sticks. A Verizon tech in Texas got the call last week. 10 years in. Now job hunting. Sites like Indeed show postings down 20% from summer. Tough for mid-career folks.
Federal Reserve’s Position: To Cut or Not to Cut?
The Fed watches jobs close. Their moves shape the market big. Governor Waller pushes for rate drops. A quarter-point cut in December, he says. To spark buying. Get firms hiring again. “It gives insurance against more weakness,” he told crowds at Oxford. Low rates mean cheap loans. Businesses expand. Add shifts.
But the Fed’s split. Meeting notes from October show fights. Some want to hold rates. Inflation sticks above 2%. Tariffs from Trump’s days push goods prices up. Steel, cars, imports cost more. Officials think it’ll linger into 2026. “Can’t ease too soon,” one hawk said.
Normally, fresh reports guide them. September’s out now. But October? Mid-December at best. Shutdown ate data. No full view till then. Fed leans on chats with bosses. Anecdotes over numbers. Powell called it “driving in fog.” No clear path.
Waller dissented last meeting. Wanted a cut then. Now he doubles down. “Labor’s softening. Policy weighs on low earners.” Others like Miran back bigger half-point drops. But hawks push back. Inflation at 3.2% last read. Tariffs add heat.
Traders bet less on December now. Odds dipped to 60% for a cut. From 80%. Shutdown muddies bets. If jobs stay weak, cuts come. Else, pause.
Impact of the Government Shutdown: Delayed Economic Data
The shutdown hit data hard. September report? Out November 20. Two months late. Consumer spending stats? Pushed. Inflation too. No October CPI yet. Maybe never. Fed and planners scramble. They grab scraps.
October jobs? Partial only. Payrolls join November’s report. December 16. But household survey? Gone. No unemployment rate. First time in 77 years. BLS couldn’t call folks. Furloughs stopped it.
Impact ripples. CBO says $11 billion lost forever. GDP shaved 0.8%. Federal pay missed: $16 billion by mid-November. 650,000 workers off. Boosts October claims 30%. From 250,000 to 280,000 weekly.
Economists gripe. “Fog without instruments,” Zandi at Moody’s said. Private data fills gaps. But it’s spotty. JOLTS for quits and opens? September-October mashup December 9.
Longer term? BLS staff down 20%. One-third leaders gone. Trump fired the head in August. Temp boss now. Some quit in shutdown. Hurts quality.
White House blames Dems. But effects real. Flights cut at airports. TSA short. Food banks strained. 8 million extra meals in DC area. Unemployment in capital topped 4.3% national.
Unemployment Rate: A Mixed Picture
September updates the rate. August sat at 4.3%. Up from 4.2% in July. Still low by old books. Beats 6% peaks. But climbing slow.
Two drivers: Open spots versus workers. Shortage bites. Immigration tighter. Boomers retire. 2 million left workforce this year. Supply shrinks. That’s why growth slowed, some say.
Waller sees demand drop too. “Not just fewer hands. Fewer offers.” If bosses pull back, rate climbs. To 4.5% maybe by year-end.
Chicago Fed guesses October at 4.4%. From claims surge. Shutdown added 0.4 points. Furloughs count as jobless. But back pay later.
Examples: Construction rate 5.1%. Up as builds stall. Tariffs hike lumber costs. Tech at 3.8%. Layoffs there hit young grads hard. Black workers 6.2%. Gaps widen.
Labor force participation? 62.7%. Stuck low. More folks sit out. Childcare costs. Health issues.
Waller warns: Supply shrinks. But demand fall hurts more. Layoffs rise. Rate could tick to 4.7% if unchecked.
Looking Ahead in a Changing Job Market
The job world feels wobbly. September gives a peek. But delays cloud the rest. Growth slowed to 50,000 added. Healthcare led. Retail lagged.
Layoffs mount. Amazon 14k. Verizon 15k. AI speeds cuts. Fed debates cuts. Waller for. Hawks against. Inflation lingers.
Shutdown scars data. October blind spot. No rate then. Claims up. Sentiment at 50.7. Three-year low.
Workers face hunts tougher. Industries like telecom bleed. Retail too. Businesses navigate bumps. Tariffs bite imports.
Outlook? Murky. If cuts come, spark possible. Else, stall deepens. September’s snap shows shift. Clues for what’s next.
One aside: Funny how shutdown hit flights. I read about a guy stuck in DC. Missed a job interview. Irony.
